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| Predictions for 2020s | Rate Topic |
| Author | Post |
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| Posted by jk: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 05:25 | 1st Post |
| 1. Gradual phasing out of the DSLR. 2. Mirrorless becomes the dominant technology. 3. Autofocus in mirrorless continues to improve and equals that seen in DSLRs in 2019. 4. APS-C becomes the new standard (rather than FX) as sensors improve in dynamic range and noise control. 5. 4/3 sensor becomes the old APS-C, so no longer FX or DX but APS-C and 4/3.
____________________ Still learning after all these years! https://nikondslr.uk/gallery_view.php?user=2&folderid=none |
| Posted by chrisbet: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 05:54 | 2nd Post |
| Or .... the world runs out of the rare minerals required for electronic devices and we return to film ....
____________________ If it is broken it was probably me .... |
| Posted by Eric: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 06:01 | 3rd Post |
jk wrote:1. Gradual phasing out of the DSLR.I suspect 1 and 2 will happen soon, but whether they tip the balance point this year remains to be seen. To achieve 3. there will need to be new models that are already in the launch pipeline. Are they? Not sure FX will lose its footing so soon, especially after the launch of the Z7/6. Besides there's something about FX. I much prefer the overall photography experience of the D850 to the D500. If your predicted down shift of sensors does occur then maybe FX becomes the new medium format quality?
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by Eric: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 06:04 | 4th Post |
chrisbet wrote:Or .... the world runs out of the rare minerals required for electronic devices and we return to film ....Well according to Prince William we only have 10 years to change our ways....can't see that happening. Still at least he could spend our last 10years snuggled up to Kate.  Edit.... a friend was telling me that the carpenter that was commissioned to lay the wood block floors at Anmer Hall got his nuts roasted by Kate because she didn't like the way the grain ran. They had to take it up and start again. He apparently asked Santa for a Kate doll .... so he could stick pins in it. 
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by jk: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 07:32 | 5th Post |
Eric wrote:Well according to Prince William we only have 10 years to change our ways....can't see that happening. Still at least he could spend our last 10years snuggled up to Kate.Oh the trials of royalty. Have to worry which way the grain goes! She will complain next time that the grain needs to run 180degrees the other way!
____________________ Still learning after all these years! https://nikondslr.uk/gallery_view.php?user=2&folderid=none |
| Posted by Eric: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 07:55 | 6th Post |
jk wrote:Oh the trials of royalty.I would have told her to lay some carpet over it.
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by novicius: Wed Jan 1st, 2020 14:35 | 7th Post |
| Read several comments made by , among others , sports photogs who are not keen on the EVF...I`m not a sports jock, but I could n`t care less about the EVF, it is Simply put, Not good ....it has been around for over forty yrs. , so, ample time to make it right,...naw, that`s Not getting any better this year. Pro-Photogs are a Die-hard conservative bunch , I remember I was...and All the Serious minded photogs want to shoot what the Pro shoots with... let`s see what that D6 is all about..
____________________ Back in Danmark I do not use my equipment to make photo`s .. I take photo`s to use my equipment The better I become at photography,the better my camera gets. |
| Posted by chrisbet: Thu Jan 2nd, 2020 11:28 | 8th Post |
| Tough - if the customer doesn't like it then the customer is always right, that's business!
____________________ If it is broken it was probably me .... |
| Posted by novicius: Thu Jan 2nd, 2020 18:03 | 9th Post |
| Toying with what is really required in a new camera....First off, noticed that Lenses have become Bigger..Heavier and Slower..check the Huge and heavy PC-E nikkors 19 f4.0..24 f3.5...85 f2.8..vs. the old small`ish and lightweight PC Nikkors 28 f3.5...35 f2.8...Yes, I can assure you that together they will not all fit in a lowepro slingback, which is a reasonably sized bag. Just this X-mas have I become the Happy owner of a IRIX blackstone 11mm f4.0...it is Huge and Heavy !!...Bigger and Heavier than the 35-70 f2.8 af-D. Most here are familiar with the Huge 14-24 f2.8, .. and then there are those that are even Bigger and Heavier , like the telephoto`s...it seems clear what direction Lens design is going to. So then , it is clear to me , that the Dslr has to ...Shrink in Size and Weight,..with Computer components becoming smaller and yet of more capacity..I think Nikon has already done that...looking at nikon Df.. Why is there no successor ??..it was a bomb,..photogs jumped on it, even coming from other brands. Is it possible that the Df was a "feeler" ?...and Why did a semi-pro camera received Nikon`s best sensor ?... I , for one, can n`t wait for the D6 to appear..will it be a D5 look alike ( yawn )....or will it be the new Df ?... The Slr finder is the Best there is , all that is required is for it to be placed in a smaller , lightweight unit of Higher capacity..now, the technology is here..but will it be in the D6. Will I be disappointed ?.. What say you , fellow capturers of light and shadows.
____________________ Back in Danmark I do not use my equipment to make photo`s .. I take photo`s to use my equipment The better I become at photography,the better my camera gets. |
| Posted by Eric: Fri Jan 3rd, 2020 09:53 | 10th Post |
novicius wrote:Toying with what is really required in a new camera....First off, noticed that Lenses have become Bigger..Heavier and Slower..check the Huge and heavy PC-E nikkors 19 f4.0..24 f3.5...85 f2.8..vs. the old small`ish and lightweight PC Nikkors 28 f3.5...35 f2.8...Yes, I can assure you that together they will not all fit in a lowepro slingback, which is a reasonably sized bag.Nikon have tackled or are tackling the heavy telephoto lenses. The 300mmPF and 500mmPF lenses are less than half the weight of their previous versions. There is a 600mmPF on its way (or maybe already available?) With the accelerating trend towards mirrorless I imagine Nikon will be concentrating on developing their bodies and using the FZ adapter to stay connected with older lenses until they can release newer Z lenses. Whether these newer lenses will be lighter and faster than their predecessors remains to be established. I don't know if the PF fresnel lens technology lends itself to all focal lengths, primes and zooms? The technology works well with the 300 & 500. I suppose Nikon, to some degree, have gone with a sort of hybrid approach....much like hybrid cars. Their current offerings are perhaps a stop gap? A lot of people must be waiting to see the pace of development this year before saying 'DSLR' is dead ....just like ICE vehicles. Although with vehicles it's a much more of a battery life issue than with a mirrorless camera! But it's perhaps a bizarrely common theme... electric cars are often heavier than older ICE versions.
____________________ Eric |
| Posted by blackfox: Sat Jan 4th, 2020 05:00 | 11th Post |
| trump will start WW3 ?
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| Posted by jk: Sat Jan 4th, 2020 06:12 | 12th Post |
blackfox wrote:trump will start WW3 ?No need the Iranians will sort him out! They will build him a wall.
____________________ Still learning after all these years! https://nikondslr.uk/gallery_view.php?user=2&folderid=none |
| Posted by GeoffR: Wed Jan 8th, 2020 15:42 | 13th Post |
novicius wrote:So then , it is clear to me , that the Dslr has to ...Shrink in Size and Weight,..with Computer components becoming smallerI want the "lighter" bit but smaller? No thanks the D3/D4 is about right size wise for me. The D6 looks very much like the D4 and D5 so no I don't think the technology is going to be in the D6 Will you be disappointed, in some respects I hope you are, in others not.
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| Posted by novicius: Wed Jan 8th, 2020 16:51 | 14th Post |
____________________ Back in Danmark I do not use my equipment to make photo`s .. I take photo`s to use my equipment The better I become at photography,the better my camera gets. |
| Posted by jk: Thu Jan 9th, 2020 04:06 | 15th Post |
| I still have an F3 film. Now if there was a digital film insert then I would be happy.
____________________ Still learning after all these years! https://nikondslr.uk/gallery_view.php?user=2&folderid=none |
| Posted by Robert: Thu Jan 9th, 2020 04:14 | 16th Post |
novicius wrote:I believe the nearest we have is DF, I suspect a DF2 is unlikely and a ZF even less likely but for some very desirable.
____________________ Robert. |
| Posted by jk: Thu Jan 9th, 2020 05:06 | 17th Post |
| I tested a Df a while back and found it to be big, bulky and lacked finesse wrt controls. Everything seemed to be suboptimal.
____________________ Still learning after all these years! https://nikondslr.uk/gallery_view.php?user=2&folderid=none |
| Posted by Eric: Thu Jan 9th, 2020 08:28 | 18th Post |
jk wrote:I tested a Df a while back and found it to be big, bulky and lacked finesse wrt controls. Everything seemed to be suboptimal.It's a retro cult thing.... 
____________________ Eric |
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